Former head of SBU repeats claim : Russia intended to shot down Aeroflot aircraft
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At October 5 2016 the former head of Ukraine Secret Service repeated a claim previously made by the Ukraine secret service:
“The BUK TELAR had the intention to shot down an Aeroflot aircraft but shot down MH17 by mistake. The motive to shot down the Aeroflot aircraft was to blame Ukraine for it and do an invasion of Eastern Ukraine”
Nalyvaichenko did the claim on .
I blogged about this motive in January 2016. This scenario is extremely unlikely. If this was a planned operation you would expect the TELAR to have a radio connection with an advanced radar and command post located in Russia. This radar is able to identify commercial aircraft. A mistake would would be impossible.
I have no clue who the international experts are claimed by Nalyvaichenko to agree with the scenario of a mistake.
There are many other reasons this story is nonsense. It seems Nalyvaichenko is annoyed why how ways go in Ukraine.
This motive got a fair bit of attention by Russian people. Economist and former Putin’s advisor Andrey Illarionov who now fell out of grace writes at October 5 2016 a blogpost about this scenario.
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/950503.html?utm_source=twsharing&utm_medium=social
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If Ukraine could prove it was a genuine deliberate act vs civilians:
-they might get off the hook of not closing airspace?
-it would be more damaging to their enemy
So they have motive to lie in this matter.
I doubt the Aeroflot -theory:
-BUK launch origin can not be kept secret, especially not beside a large city
-IF AWACS planes of the Breeze training were delayed more, they would have seen the launch (too big Risk)
-Rebel guided Russian BUK team does not get the BUK 80km to wrong place
-If deliberate kill would be planned, surely rebels would use FlightRadar24 to hit the correct plane
-If deliberate kill would be planned, surely they would use longer range Ukrainian R27 missile?
etc.
IMO: Aeroflot theory is pure nonsense.
Couple points
– Kremlin did not need a secret, they delay – like Crimea and little green men, delay allowed them to secure and judgement EU and USA would not do preemtive strike/declare war against RU. Kremlin could scream it was not us, it was DNR They would have secured land bridge.
– RU knows or guesses AWACS range and can detect follow them until out of range
– A2074 may not have been target, plane that would land in DNR territory may have been. Maybe Ukraine intel may have intercepted a communication that described 2074, then it may have been deception. and this is why a few believe this in intel dept today. Maybe both were options. Maybe 2074 planned, but plans got changed when crew left Donetsk going wrong way.
Maybe both were planned with an expected extra BUK system revealed in intercepts.
We do not know if 2nd was supposed to be command center or another TELAR with missiles, or maybe a TAR.
I agree it is too early to declare 2074 was target, but I imagine there is some intercepted communication that describes this. Was it a lie by people discussing? A planning discussion of options? A deception they wanted Ukrainian intel to hear?
I am not sure. I think there is more evidence for this than what we know.
It is possible, it is unlikely, but possible.
But then again, no one expected a International civilian airplane flight to be hit (intentionally or accident) even most of DNR rebels.
I think they were in shock as well when they found out.
Have to wait for Tribunal to know what they pursue, I guess.
Do not forget, conscripts often do not know exact mission plans.
Need to know basis and all.
Fare thee well