What could be the effect of Trump presidency on the MH17 case
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Now Donald Trump will be president of the United States in January, what will be the effect on sanctions, investigation and prosecution related to MH17?
Trump in an interview at October 14 2015 on MSNBC with NBC reporter Katy Tur stated (at 10:40 into the interview) “We just can’t fight with everybody” and “I think we have to straighten our own problems out right now” broadcast on Wednesday’s”. Trump stated Russia was probably responsible for the downing. “I think it is horrible,” Trump said of the incident. “But they’re saying it wasn’t them. The other side says it is them. And we’re going to go through that arguing for probably for 50 years and nobody is ever going to know. Probably was Russia.”
CNN, a pro Clinton newsstation, made this headline out of the Trump interview:
“Donald Trump says Russia isn’t to blame for MH17, despite evidence”
That is really a nonsense headline. It was not wat Trump said. This blog shows that CNN is twisting the words of Trump. This twist was used in social media as well days before the voting.
Now what could be the effect of Trump on MH17?
Since July 2014 we have seen the United States hardly be involved in the MH17 case, at least not what the public could see. The US did not make any public statements except for welcoming the DSB and JIT reports.
Regarding sanctions EU always said the sanctions against Russia were not because of MH17. These are because of annexation of Crimea and not respecting the Minsk agreement. I expect these sanctions will be reduced in 2017 mainly because of pressure by people in EU states. Trump could have a positive effect on the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Regarding the criminal investigation the United States handed over classified evidence to a selected number of people working for the criminal investigation team. Trump presidency will not have any effect on that.
Regarding the court case. It is likely the suspects will be prosecuted in a Dutch domestic court case. As suspects will not be located in the United States there will be no legal issues with extradiction. So again the Trump presidency will have no effect on prosecution and court case.
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Maybe Trump will ask: “What does our intelligence community know about MH17?”
This might be a game-changer. 😉
It might have some influence on whether classified (satellite) data handed tomthe JIT is at some point declassified or not.
“Regarding sanctions EU always said the sanctions against Russia were not because of MH17. These are because of annexation of Crimea and not respecting the Minsk agreement.”
But much greater sanctions were put in place right AFTER the downing of MH17, and BEFORE any Minsk agreement had been signed. The sanctions that EU put in place in March 2014 were basically a travel ban for a bunch of people involved in the takeover of Crimea – a total of 21 individuals. No assets were frozen by the EU, as far as I can recall. In April, EU extended travel bans to 15 more individuals. The US did push for more sanctions from the beginning and also went slightly further than the EU, but it was only after the downing that sanctions got serious and hard-hitting for Russia.
In this context, it is rather interesting to note that there was a preliminary meeting of member countries in the EU on July 16th, where the issue of sanctions was first brought up. There were reports from this day about the meeting, where it was clear that some member countries were unsure and very unwilling to extend sanctions. The next day, the tone was very different.
Correct Mumrik
Minsk Protocols were an evolution after the Poroshenko and Kuchma 15 point peace plan failed.
The sanctions placed after MH17 were designed around people who were escalating the conflict as well as response to various human rights abuses, ie kidnapping Red Cross workers, torture basements, weapon smuggling, targeting Ukrainian villages and then falsely blaming Ukrainian forces, etc.
MH17 was not the reason for the sanctions, but it was a factor that brought agreement among countries to a higher level.
There might have been a few last minute additions, but for the most part the people and businesses on the list were already chosen.
IMHO Sanctions would still have gone into effect if MH17 did not happen.
I think the only thing MH17 did was increase sanctions placed by countries unilaterally by themselves against certain people and groups.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Fifteen-point_peace_plan
Dr. Marco, IMHO it may affect only parts of the T/S info being declassified and being allowed to be shown during the trials.
Although I tend to believe it will remain classified as a EU negotiation tool against Russia for extradition.
MH17 affected countries, mainly Dutch leadership, will make the decision about info that JIT has still secret to twist the arm behind the back of Russia or not.
Russia will have a part to play as well in those negotiations, so it will not be one sided.
It will all depend I guess how far Russia wants to play their denial game to how much info gets released.
Dutch Leadership may make the decision not to release anything and just try the criminals in absentia.
I expect Trump will keep the agreement as it stands.
But he is an unknown and he may release something in direct negotiating with Putin about the removal of all Russian equipment and people from Donbas.
Crimea will remain Russian throughout his whole term as POTUS in order to avoid conflict though I believe.
Conflicts do escalate and can be unpredictable events.
Especially when he and vova are concerned.
Likelihood of a increase in T/S data by USA before or during trial being released IMHO is very low .
Although leaks by others who have access to it or hackers remains more of an unknown.
Fare thee well